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Regression To The Mean
Last updated: 1/9/2025
Regression to the mean is a statistical occurrence that happens in day-to-day life. It is the reason why people attribute casual relationships to things that are just correlated. For example, fighter jet pilots seem to do worse after being praised but better after they are yelled at, does this go against common knowledge that it is good to praise people for their good work? The answer is that pilots who get praise have recently did a better job then they normally are, and this always has something to do with luck. So if, after they are praised, they do a worse job, it is because they are regressing to their mean behavior.